There are three main
"tools" I use to predict wave conditions.
National Weather Service (N.W.S.
[No relation to N.W.A.]) Marine advisories.
Surface Maps.
N.W.S. Wind/Swell Period
forecast.
N.W.S Marine advisories.
This is a
no-brainer. Spelled out in plain english, are the latest conditions, and
forecasts for wind speed/direction, height of seas, and occasionally,
approaching swells.
Surface Maps.
Low and High
pressure systems, which create the winds, which create the waves, which create
the smiles on thousands of surfers faces around the globe. Available from
several sources, surface maps are often the best long range forecast for wind
conditions you can find. Isobars are areas of equal pressure surrounding
the high and low pressure systems, and are represented by those nifty little
lines around the "H"s and "L"s. Wind flows along these
lines. Clockwise around a high and counter-clockwise around a low.
The closer the isobars(lines) are packed together, the faster the wind will be
flowing along those lines.
N.W.S. Wind/Swell Period forecast.
In my
opinion, these plots alone, provide enough information to make a relatively
accurate surf forecast.
Based on algorithms generated
from years of research, the N.W.S. provides possibly the most useful tool for
predicting surf conditions. These charts are faxed in, in tif format.
There is a huge repository of these tif files at http://tgsv5.nws.noaa.gov/pub/fax/. I have taken a few of these files
and cropped/rotated/appended/scaled them in one handy dandy web page for your
and my convenience. They may look a little confusing at first glance, but
fear not, they are much simpler than you may think.
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First, we have the wind speed/direction-sea
size plot. In brief, the "shaft" points in the direction the wind is blowing, and the "barbs" and "flags" represent the wind speed. Each "full" barb represents 10 knots while a "half" barb represents 5 knots. Each "flag" represents 50 knots(these are rare). Also appended to each flag is the predicted sea height(in feet). That's right, how big the seas are predicted to be on that specific date. |
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Next, we have the swell period/direction
plot. The arrow points in the direction the swell is heading, and the number represents the "swell period" (i.e. frequency) in seconds. The larger the number, the longer the period, the more powerful the swell. |
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I make no attempts to create a cookie-cutter type formula, as every beach is different, and nearly every beach gets good under different conditions. I only attempt to forecast the waves for the areas I am familiar with, and provide the resources for predicting the waves in other areas.
Happy hunting!